MODELING WHEAT YIELD BY USING PHENOLOGYCAL METRICS DERIVED FROM SENTINEL2 IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID REGIONS- A case study in MOROCCO-

ABSTRACT  Context and background Wheat is one of the oldest cultivated plants in the world and has always been one of the most important staples for millions of people around the world and especially in North Africa, where wheat is the most used crop for typical food industry. Thus, an operational crop production system is needed to help decision makers make early estimates of potential food availability Yield estimation using remote sensing data has been widely studied, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions such as North Africa, where interannual variations in climatic factors, and spatial variability in particular, are major risks to food security.Goal and Objectives: The aim of this study is to develop a model to estimate wheat yield based on phenological metrics derived from SENTINEL-2 NDVI images in order to generalize a spatial model to estimate wheat yields in Morocco's semi-arid conditionsMethodology:The 10 m NDVI time series was integrated into TIMESAT software to extract wheat phenology-related metrics during the 2018-2019 agricultural season, the period in which ground truth data was collected.  Through the multiple stepwise regression method, all phenological metrics were used to predict wheat yield. Moreover, the accuracy and stability of produced models were evaluated using a K-fold cross-validation (K-fold CV) method.Results:The results of the obtained models indicated a good linear correlation between predicted yield and field observations (R2 = 0.75 and RMSE of 7.08q/ha). The obtained method could be a good tool for decision makers to orient their actions under different climatic conditions

Performance of remote sensing data and machine learning for wheat disease detection

International audienceThe evolution of remote sensing applications in precision agriculture may lead to a reduction in phytochemical use. The development of data processing techniques allows speeding up the treatment of the information then making it possible to apply the right amount of chemical at the right place and time. In this study, the use of spectral information from remote sensing data using camera sensors coupled with artificial intelligence techniques at the field scale to detect wheat diseases is evaluated. In this study a Region based Convolutional Neural Network (R-CNN) model was evaluated for wheat disease detection. Besides, the methodology considered environmental variability during data collection to simulate real conditions during data acquisition in the field. The preliminary results of the model show a mean average precision of 0.45 and a precision between 0.2 to 0.6 for each image. Considering limitations in terms of data annotations for training the model, these results look promising on the way to consider further improvement of the model to reach higher accuracies and precisions. Furthermore, the study aims to develop a methodology for treatments reduction based on the enhanced version of the R-CNN model. Therefore, wheat disease detection and localized treatment in the field have a strong potential to reduce the use of chemicals. The developed methodology will optimize the costs and the use of chemicals over agricultural fields

Monitoring spatial variability and trends of wheat grain yield over the main cereal regions in Morocco: a remote-based tool for planning and adjusting policies

Changes in crop yields may have important implications for food security in Morocco. This study intends to develop an explicit model based solely on phenological parameters derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/NDVI data to monitor wheat grain yield. The developed model allows overcoming missing weather, soil and irrigation supply data without losing the spatial resolution offered by images data. The study period covers a 16-year span between 2000 and 2016, and the considered region is the north-western of Morocco. The model showed a good correlation with ground measurements (R2 = 0.62; p < 0.01). Spatio-temporal variability and trend of wheat yield were examined. The spatial analyses revealed an increase of instability of wheat grain yields across central and southern regions. Such a tool allows managers and policy makers to analyse the agricultural policy impact, to monitor the agronomic potential dynamic, to control the cropping season evolution and to optimize the land use choices

A comparative analysis of different phenological information retrieved from Sentinel-2 time series images to improve crop classification: a machine learning approach

In this study, the potential of phenological indicators derived from Sentinel-2A (S2) time series were evaluated to explore the key variables that allow identifying both cropland and crop types. Based on the derived S2 phenological metrics and fitted vegetation indices (VI), 10 feature sets were developed and assessed to discriminate different crop types via Random Forest (RF) classifier. The comparison between VI data-based classifications has shown that NDVI and EVI2 phenological sets could delineate and identify crop types more accurately compared to RENDVI data. Overall, the combined use of fitted VI and phenological features rather than being used separately achieved the best performances. Further, the result of using optimum features was the most accurate among 10 feature sets, with an overall accuracy of 88% and kappa of 0.84. This study constitutes a substantial improvement in crop type identification, which gives a valuable tool to monitor agricultural areas

RECOURS AUX SATELLITES POUR APPUYER LE MANAGEMENT DE L’EAU D’IRRIGATION: ESTIMATION DES BESOINS EN EAU DES AGRUMES PAR TÉLÉDÉTECTION DANS LA PLAINE DE TRIFFA-BERKANE (MAROC)

Citrus represent the main irrigated crop in Trifa plain (Berkane, Morocco) and their area are in continuous extension, which increases the pressures on the limited water resources of the region. In this context, effective and rational governance of agricultural water is highly needed. In this study, we propose a satellite based approach to support irrigation water management of citrus in Trifa plain. This approach was developed in two steps: citrus crop coefficient maps were firstly developed from an age-stratified citrus map, derived from Sentinel optical and radar satellite images. Then, a validated implementation of Hargreaves model was used to estimate potential evapotranspiration from Landsat 8 TIRS thermal images. Compared to Penman-Montheith reference model, Hargreaves method estimates accurately potential evapotranspiration, with an error (RMSE) lower than 0.5mm / day. Finlay, the combination of crop coefficient and potential evapotranspiration maps allowed to spatialize the maximum citrus evapotranspiration at the pixel scale (one hectare). This information could be used to assist irrigation services to increase agricultural water productivity in irrigated areas

Mapping and Characterization of Phenological Changes over Various Farming Systems in an Arid and Semi-Arid Region Using Multitemporal Moderate Spatial Resolution Data

Changing land use patterns is of great importance in environmental studies and critical for land use management decision making over farming systems in arid and semi-arid regions. Unfortunately, ground data scarcity or inadequacy in many regions can cause large uncertainties in the characterization of phenological changes in arid and semi-arid regions, which can hamper tailored decision making towards best agricultural management practices. Alternatively, state-of-the-art methods for phenological metrics’ extraction and long time-series analysis techniques of multispectral remote sensing imagery provide a viable solution. In this context, this study aims to characterize the changes over farming systems through trend analysis. To this end, four farming systems (fallow, rainfed, irrigated annual, and irrigated perennial) in arid areas of Morocco were studied based on four phenological metrics (PhM) (i.e., great integral, start, end, and length of the season). These were derived from large Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series using both a machine learning algorithm and a pixel-based change analysis method. Results showed that during the last twenty-year period (i.e., 2000–2019), a significant dynamism of the plant cover was linked to the behavior of farmers who tend to cultivate intensively and to invest in high-income crops. More specifically, a relevant variability in fallow and rainfed areas, closely linked to the weather conditions, was found. In addition, significant lag trends of the start (−6 days) and end (+3 days) were found, which indicate that the length of the season was related to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall. This study has also highlighted the potential of multitemporal moderate spatial resolution data to accurately monitor agriculture and better manage land resources. In the meantime, for operationally implementing the use of such work in the field, we believe that it is essential consider the perceptions, opinions, and mutual benefits of farmers and stakeholders to improve strategies and synergies whilst ensuring food, welfare, and sustainability

The performance of random forest classification based on phenological metrics derived from Sentinel-2 and landsat 8 to map crop cover in an irrigated semi-arid region

The use of remote sensing data provides valuable information to ensure sustainable land cover management. In this paper, the potential of phenological metrics data, derived from Sentinel-2A (S2) and Landsat 8 (L8) NDVI time series, was evaluated using Random Forest (RF) classification to identify and map various crop classes over two irrigated perimeters in Morocco. The smoothed NDVI time series obtained by the TIMESAT software was used to extract profiles and phenological metrics, which constitute potential explanatory variables for cropland classification. The method of classification applied involves the use of a supervised Random Forest (RF) classifier. The results demonstrated the capability of moderate-to-high spatial resolution (10–30 m) satellite imagery to capture the phenological stages of different cropping systems over the study area. Furthermore, the classification based on S2 data presents a higher overall accuracy of 93% and a kappa coefficient of 0.91 than those produced by L8 data, which are 90% and 0.88, respectively. In other words, phenological metrics obtained from S2 time series data showed high potential for agricultural crop-types classification in semi-arid regions and thus can constitute a valuable tool for decision makers to use in managing and monitoring a complex landscape such as an irrigated perimeter

Mapping and Characterization of Phenological Changes over Various Farming Systems in an Arid and Semi-Arid Region Using Multitemporal Moderate Spatial Resolution Data

Changing land use patterns is of great importance in environmental studies and critical for land use management decision making over farming systems in arid and semi-arid regions. Unfortunately, ground data scarcity or inadequacy in many regions can cause large uncertainties in the characterization of phenological changes in arid and semi-arid regions, which can hamper tailored decision making towards best agricultural management practices. Alternatively, state-of-the-art methods for phenological metrics’ extraction and long time-series analysis techniques of multispectral remote sensing imagery provide a viable solution. In this context, this study aims to characterize the changes over farming systems through trend analysis. To this end, four farming systems (fallow, rainfed, irrigated annual, and irrigated perennial) in arid areas of Morocco were studied based on four phenological metrics (PhM) (i.e., great integral, start, end, and length of the season). These were derived from large Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series using both a machine learning algorithm and a pixel-based change analysis method. Results showed that during the last twenty-year period (i.e., 2000–2019), a significant dynamism of the plant cover was linked to the behavior of farmers who tend to cultivate intensively and to invest in high-income crops. More specifically, a relevant variability in fallow and rainfed areas, closely linked to the weather conditions, was found. In addition, significant lag trends of the start (−6 days) and end (+3 days) were found, which indicate that the length of the season was related to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall. This study has also highlighted the potential of multitemporal moderate spatial resolution data to accurately monitor agriculture and better manage land resources. In the meantime, for operationally implementing the use of such work in the field, we believe that it is essential consider the perceptions, opinions, and mutual benefits of farmers and stakeholders to improve strategies and synergies whilst ensuring food, welfare, and sustainability